Markets love a timeline. Washington rarely gives one. And according to TD Cowen, the crypto market-structure bill that was supposed to follow the GENIUS Act may not cross the finish line until after the November 2026 elections.
Stuck in Neutral: What’s Slowing CLARITY ACT
TD Cowen says talks between Republicans and Democrats over the CLARITY Act have stalled.
Their assessment: it’s “not impossible” to see movement in the next 12 months, but there are more reasons to delay than to accelerate right now.
One major snag, as described in the report: Democratic demands to bar senior government officials, including President Donald Trump and their families, from owning crypto companies.
That provision has become a political tripwire rather than a bridge to compromise.
The U.S. government shutdown has spilled over into crypto policy work, slowing SEC progress on alt-coin ETF decisions (XRP, SOL) and pushing back bill movement.
Add it up and you get calendar slippage that could stretch well into the next political cycle.
After GENIUS, the Hard Part
Remember the sequence: GENIUS Act set a stablecoin framework; CLARITY is the market-structure bill that would define who regulates what in the rest of the digital-asset stack.
CLARITY aims to spell out the roles of the SEC and CFTC, and it includes a secondary-assets provision meant to clarify which tokens are – or aren’t – securities once they’re traded beyond an initial sale.
In short, GENIUS handles payments-stablecoins, CLARITY is broader and a heavier lift.
The House did its part first: CLARITY passed the House in July 2025.
Since then, the momentum has met the reality of Senate politics and a crowded docket.
Why a Delay Matters
A long pause keeps the market guessing.
Without CLARITY, firms are left navigating the same grey areas the bill is meant to resolve: which agency’s rules apply, how “secondary” tokens should be treated, and what compliance looks like in practice.
GENIUS answered the stablecoin slice.
CLARITY is the rulebook for nearly everything else.
TD Cowen’s projection – post-2026 – means those answers may arrive later than founders, exchanges, and institutional allocators hoped.
In the meantime, policy is driven by enforcement, guidance, and court outcomes rather than a single, coherent statute.
The Politics Inside the Process
Partisan disagreements, especially over ownership restrictions for senior officials and families, are weighing down the path to a deal.
TD Cowen doesn’t say talks are dead; they say the incentives to wait outweigh the incentives to sprint.
What to Watch Next
- Any sign that the ownership-ban dispute is narrowing would be the first hint of life.
- Administrative slowdowns ripple into rulemaking and approvals; clearing that backlog matters.
- The House passed its version in July 2025; all eyes remain on whether the Senate will take it up or seek a fresh blend.
The Clock Is Still Ticking
TD Cowen’s call is the story: CLARITY may not move until after the 2026 elections.
The reasons are specific – stalled bipartisan talks, disagreement over an officials’ ownership ban, and shutdown-driven delays, and the consequences are plain.
GENIUS gave stablecoins a lane. CLARITY ACT is the rest of the map.
If that map waits until 2026, the industry might driving without it.
